The Implications of Decreasing Fossil Fuels Demand for the Political Stability in the Middle East and North Africa (OILDOWN)
Grant number: TED2021-132846A-I00
Spain and the rest of the European Union (EU) are currently undergoing an ecological transition, with a crucial focus on transforming carbon-based energy systems into ones reliant on renewable energy sources. This shift will significantly alter Europe’s natural resource needs. In a post-carbon economy, reliance on fossil fuel imports—such as oil and natural gas—will decrease. While this shift is promising for the EU's climate change goals and its objective of achieving strategic autonomy, the implications for fossil fuel-exporting countries may be less favorable. Changing European (and global) energy consumption patterns can lead to more volatile markets and decreased state revenues for oil-rich countries, potentially resulting in political and socio-economic instability.
In the OILDOWN project, we explore how the renewable energy transition may impact political stability in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). This inquiry is guided by three key sub-questions:
Past Experiences: We examine historical oil gluts to identify conditions that have influenced the political stability of oil-rich countries. This analysis helps us determine which countries are more vulnerable to instability in periods of low oil demand.
Policy Responses in Oil-Rich Countries: We look at the current reform efforts in oil-rich countries in anticipation of shifts in global energy consumption patterns. Our goal is to understand why some countries pursue more ambitious reforms than others, along with the motivations and considerations behind their specific policy responses.
EU Policy Responses: We analyze whether EU policies acknowledge the potential repercussions of the renewable energy transition on the political and socio-economic stability of oil-rich countries. Additionally, we evaluate the preparedness of existing EU policies in addressing these risks.
Bringing these three elements together will provide a nuanced understanding of the complex interactions between the renewable energy transition in Europe and the stability of oil-rich countries in the MENA region.
Research Clusters related to the project
Team Members
External Contributors
- Mohamed Ismail Sabry (MECAM - Merian Center for Advanced Studies in the Maghreb)
Funding institutions
Publications
Activities
WORKSHOP
- The Impact of the Renewable Energy Transition on National and International Politics in the Middle East and North Africa, Barcelona, 2 June 2025. https://www.ibei.org/en/workshop-the-impact-of-the-renewable-energy-transition-on-national-and-international-politics-in-the-middle-east-and-north-africa_394214
CONFERENCE PAPERS (SELECTION)
- Sabry, Mohamed I. (2025) “The Prospective Development of Green Transition in Egypt”, 100th Annual Western Economic Association International (WEAI), San Francisco (California, United States), 20-24 June 2025 (accepted).
- Johansson-Nogués, Elisabeth and Adrià Rivera-Escartin (2024) The European Green Deal and the changing nature of the political economy of energy, 17th EISA Pan-European Conference on International Relations, Lille (France), 27-31 August 2024. Link
- Johansson-Nogués, Elisabeth and Adrià Rivera-Escartin (2025) The impact of the European Green Deal on Algeria, Egypt and Morocco: a resilient Southern Neighbourhood?, 2nd International Congress of Ecological Humanities, Barcelona, 30 June-1 July 2025. Link (Accepted)
- Rivera-Escartin, Adrià (2024) A resilient Southern Neighbourhood in a post-oil future? Navigating the challenges of the EGD, VII Euromed Young Researchers Forum, Rabat (Morocco), 5-6 March 2024. Link
- Sabry, Mohamed I. (2024) Energy Transition in Tunisia: State-Society Relations, Policy Coalitions and Chances for Transition Success in an Oil-Producing Country, 65th Annual Convention of the International Studies Association, San Francisco (California, United States), 3-6 April 2024. Link
- Vlaskamp, Martijn C. (2024) Pathways to Political Instability: Explaining the Consequences of Decreasing Oil Revenues for Petrostates, 81st Annual Midwest Political Science Association Conference, Chicago (Illinois, United States), 4-7 April 2024. Link
- Vlaskamp, Martijn C. and Adrià Rivera-Escartin (2025) Power Play: The Political Dynamics of the Renewable Energy Transition in the MENA Region, 66th Annual Convention of the International Studies Association, Chicago (Illinois, United States), 2-5 March 2025. Link
- Vlaskamp, Martijn C. and Adrià Rivera-Escartin (2025) Stability Through Sustainability: Understanding Saudi Arabia’s Renewable Energy Push Through the Lens of Late Rentierism, 2nd International Congress of Ecological Humanities, Barcelona, 30 June-1 July 2025. Link (Accepted)
INTERNAL PRESENTATIONS
- Rivera-Escartin, Adrià (2024) Resilience source or resource curse? Fossil fuels and Algeria’s regime stability in the light of the European Green Deal, IBEI-GIGA Workshop on Security, Conflict, and Peace, Barcelona, 22-23 February 2024. Link
- Rivera-Escartin, Adrià (2024) Resilience source or resource curse? Fossil fuels and Algeria’s regime stability in the light of the European Green Deal, Talk for IBEI Research Cluster “Security, Conflict and Peace”, Barcelona, 11 April 2024.
- Sabry, Mohamed I. and Jewellord Nem Singh (2024) The Energy Transition in Tunisia: State-Society Relations, Policy Coalitions and Chances for Transition Success in an Oil-Producing Country, IBEI-GIGA Workshop on Security, Conflict, and Peace, Barcelona, 22-23 February 2024. Link
- Sabry, Mohamed I. (2025) The Pathways of the Green Transition in the MENA, Talk for IBEI Research Cluster “Climate Change, Natural Resources, and Sustainability”, Barcelona, 14 January 2025. Link
- Vlaskamp, Martijn C. (2024) Pathways to Political Instability: Explaining the Consequences of Decreasing Oil Demand, IBEI-GIGA Workshop on Security, Conflict, and Peace, Barcelona, 22-23 February 2024. Link
OUTREACH
- Adrià Rivera-Escartin and Martijn Vlaskamp, “És la fi dels petrodòlars?” [Is This the End of Petrodollars?] Podcast (in Catalan), 13 March 2025. Link
- Martijn Vlaskamp, “The Renewable Energy Transition and Political Stability in the MENA Region.” Presentation at Aula Mediterrània Interdisciplinary Research Seminar, 29 March 2023, Barcelona. Link
- Martijn Vlaskamp, “The Geopolitics of the Ecological and Energy Transition: From Competition for Oil to Competition for Critical Materials?” Roundtable at Caixaforum Barcelona, 23 May 2023. Link
- Martijn Vlaskamp, “La geopolítica de la transición ecológica y energética: ¿de la competición por el petróleo a la competición por materias críticas?” [The Geopolitics of the Ecological and Energy Transition: From Competition for Oil to Competition for Critical Materials?], Roundtable at Caixaforum Sevilla, 23 October 2024. Link
- Martijn Vlaskamp, “De l'or negre a la incertesa? Com els països petroliers reaccionen a la transició energética” [From Black Gold to Uncertainty? How Oil-Producing Countries Are Reacting to the Energy Transition], Lecture in the series “Science Mondays”. 19 May 2025. Link
